Coronavirus in Mexico May 13th: latest news, cases, and deaths

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There are more than 40,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus COVID-19, a virus that has already claimed the lives of more than four thousand people in Mexico.

Mexico is in its moment of greatest contagion by coronavirus, close to reaching its maximum peak. Throughout the Mexican Republic, there are more than four thousand fatal losses and more than 40 thousand cases of contagion by Sars-Cov2.

Defunciones por estado.

40,186 accumulated cases and 4,220 deaths

According to the most recent report of the Ministry of Health of the Government of Mexico, offered at 7:00 p.m. on Wednesday, May 13, 2020, there are 4,220 confirmed deaths from the disease of the deadly virus throughout our country, with a fatality rate 10.5% so far.

Distribution of Coronavirus cases by state in Mexico as of May 13

Federal entityAccumulatedDeathsAssets
Mexico City1094610572240
Mexico state68134051244
Baja California2764464430
Tabasco1976253557
Sinaloa1620248256
Veracruz1574166514
Puebla1213165266
Quintana Roo1177222184
Yucatan92454278
Morelos915134276
Tamaulipas799fifty172
Chihuahua768151113
New Lion71739262
Jalisco69959218
Michoacán67877204
Warrior67081210
Sonora64230213
gentleman637112228
Coahuila61653129
Guanajuato58057223
Chiapas45031169
Tlaxcala43875147
Baja California Sur4092449
Aguascalientes398fifteen104
San Luis Potosi33817164
Queretaro31527147
Oaxaca2915497
Nayarit25226110
Campeche2263275
Zacatecas168twenty-onefifty
Durango1271436
Colima46713
AccumulatedDeathsAssets
Total4018642209378

As for cases of contagion, 40,186 people with such discomfort have been made official. Of these accumulated cases, 23.4% corresponding to 9,378 cases, are considered as assets, which are of greater contagion. Only those positive cases, with symptoms onset date in the last 14 days, are considered as active cases.

Mexico City close to a thousand deaths from COVID-19

The most populous entity in the country continues to be the most affected in Mexican territory. Due to its high population density, 1,057 deaths, 10,946 accumulated cases and 2,240 active cases are reported.

Map of Coronavirus in Mexico by states

Here you can see the interactive map by states offered by the Ministry of Health of the Government of Mexico. If you want to see it in full screen, click here .

Coronavirus map in Mexico by municipalities

Here you can see the interactive map by municipalities offered by the Ministry of Health of the Government of Mexico. If you want to see it in full screen, click here .

The central zone, Pacific and Southeast, those of greater alarm

The State of Mexico and Puebla are among the most affected in the central zone. The Mexican entity records 405 fatal losses, 6,813 accumulated cases, and 1,244 active cases. Puebla has suffered 165 deaths, 1,213 accumulated cases and 266 assets.

The Pacific has been hit hard by the coronavirus. Baja California has 464 deaths, 2,764 accumulated cases and 430 active cases. In Sinaloa, 248 people have died from COVID-19, there are 1,620 accumulated cases and 256 active cases.

In the southeast of the country, Tabasco, Veracruz, and Quintana Roo also appear among the entities with the highest number of infections and deaths. Tabasco has lost 253 people, with 1,976 accumulated and 557 assets. Veracruz has 166 fatal losses, with 1,574 positives and 514 assets. Quintana Roo has suffered 222 deaths, with 1,177 infections and 184 assets.

Prediction platform on the advance of COVID-19 in Mexico indicates that the first wave could extend until October

Despite the fact that the country’s authorities have already announced the first steps for the beginning of the “return to the new normal”, a model predicts the long duration of the first cycle of the coronavirus epidemic

As Mexico prepares to start unconfinement measures in certain municipalities after the quarantine of the coronavirus epidemic that affects the world, a platform that monitors and predicts the advance of COVID-19 in the country indicates that the first wave could extend even to the beginning of October.

“Generating this information allows people, and even experts, to be informed to generate certainty and avoid collective panic,” Dr. Roberto A. Vázquez, from La Salle University and the person in charge of developing the information, told Infobae Mexico. “Platform for monitoring and prediction of COVID-19 in Mexico”.

The researcher, a specialist in Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining and a Member of the Mexican National System of Researchers (SNI), developed the platform from the application of Artificial Intelligence algorithms, artificial neural networks and evolutionary computation. This allows analyzing the official information published by the Ministry of Health (SSa) and predicting how the epidemic will evolve in the country.

According to the sigmoidal logarithmic model, one of the five models used for monitoring and predicting the disease on the platform, the maximum peak of cases will be presented on May 25 and the first wave of the epidemic in the country will extend until mid-October, when confirmed cases drop below 20 daily positives :

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

The same model, abbreviated as logsig, predicts that in early June COVID-19 fatalities will drop below 100 cases daily and below 10 cases in 24-hour periods for the first days of September :

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

Finally, the same model also estimates that the number of hospitalized patients in the country will grow until May 20 . Thereafter, the new revenue decline will begin, which he predicts will be less than a hundred a day in early August:

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

The Mexican government, which contemplates its maximum peak of infections between May 8 and 20, will begin with the reincorporation of activities as soon as next week, in 269 municipalities in 15 different states, in addition to incorporating mining, construction, and manufacturing of transportation equipment as essential activities.

Likewise, on June 1, the National Sana Distancia Day, which began on March 20, will end, and the states may follow a traffic light that will specifically indicate the type of activities that can be carried out in each region of the country.

The country's traffic light until Wednesday May 13, 2020 (Photo: Special)

“The important thing about the models is that they can give us an idea of ​​when the maximum peak of infections can occur and the dates are foreseen to maintain or not the mitigation measures, ” said Vázquez. “In the end, it is important to identify what can happen in the short, medium and long term to make strategic decisions,” he added.

However, there is another model that predicts a more benevolent epidemic curve for the country, the SIR. “This model has more similar information to what the authorities of the Ministry of Health have said. It indicates a peak this (Saturday) May 14 and a number of infections below 50 positives each day by mid-July, “explained the researcher:

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

On the other hand, the Gaussian model indicates that practically by the end of July the positive cases will be below twenty every day . The same model predicts that there will be fewer than 100 deaths per day by the end of June and fewer than 10 fatalities per day by the end of July :

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

The logsig model estimates that, in early October, there will be almost 152,700 accumulated confirmed cases. The Gausssian, meanwhile, predicts just over 101,000 positives in the same time period. The SIR model indicates that they will be just over 81,000 by mid-July.

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

As for the accumulated fatalities, the logsig model predicts that on June 2, Mexico will exceed 8,000 deaths from COVID-19, the figure that the undersecretary of Health Hugo López-Gatell, the official spokesperson for the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, had predicted for the entire first wave of coronaviruses nationwide.

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

(Photo: COVID-19 Monitoring La Salle University)

Under this model, Mexico will touch 15,000 fatalities from the disease throughout its first stage. In the Gaussian model, the 8,000 deaths will be exceeded at the end of May and some 14,500 accumulated deaths will accumulate until mid-October.

Vázquez, the director of the platform, also explained that there is a “world monitor” that allows comparing confirmed cases between countries, as well as their deaths. It is normalized according to the size of the population of each country and aligned with respect to the first reported case for a better comparison.

“These comparisons allow us to definitively see that Mexico was able to ‘flatten the curve’, the measures have had a positive impact, the policies have worked in that sense, ” he concluded. Vázquez already works on a similar comparative table, but intended for the Mexican states.

(Photo: World Monitor COVID-19 La Salle University)

(Photo: World Monitor COVID-19 La Salle University)

To consult and compare the different models used, you can access here the platform developed by the researcher from La Salle University .

As of this Wednesday, 40,186 confirmed cases of COVID-19 accumulate in Mexico. Of these, there are 9,378 active patients, who presented symptoms in the last 14 days and who can infect others. In addition, they add 4,220 deaths in total.

Map and cases of coronavirus in Mexico by states today May 13

Source: excelsior.com.mx, mexico.as.com, mediotiempo.com, infobae.com

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