Hurricane Willa is tracking northwestward but is expected to slowly recurve toward the northeast by Tuesday and should approach landfall in northern Mexico late Tuesday into Wednesday. Landfall of the circulation center is expected anywhere from near or north of Mazatlán to near Puerto Vallarta. A hurricane watch is now posted from San Blas to Mazatlán and tropical storm watch is in effect from Playa Perula to San Blas. Tropical storm conditions (39-73 mph winds) could arrive as early as Tuesday morning in the hurricane watch area. By late Tuesday, hurricane conditions (74+ mph winds) may develop along that same stretch of the coastline.
Low wind shear (change in wind direction and/or speed with height) and very warm water temperatures will allow Willa to continue intensifying early this week into a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger).
Increasing wind shear will lead to weakening as Willa approaches landfall, but it should still be a strong and dangerous hurricane as it moves inland late Tuesday into Wednesday. Locally up to 15 inches of rain is possible in western Jalisco, western Nayarit and southern Sinaloa in Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This could trigger dangerous flooding and landslides.
Rough surf will begin to arrive Monday on the southwest and west-central Mexico coastline, contributing to a high risk of rip currents, the NHC said. Those in low-lying areas near the coast where Willa is forecast to push inland should seek higher ground due to the threat of dangerous storm surge flooding. Where the core of Willa’s most intense winds roar ashore there will likely be tree damage, power outages, and structural damage.
After dissipating over Mexico’s mountainous terrain, the remnant upper-level
energy and moisture from Willa could eventually enhance rainfall in Texas and
perhaps the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday into Thursday.
Source: The Weather Channel
The Mazatlan Post