AccuWeather forecasters say the Eastern Pacific basin has come to life following a brief break in tropical activity. A brewing tropical system south of Mexico became Tropical Depression 19-E on Wednesday evening and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Roslyn on Thursday, October 20th.
Rosyln is set to bring heavy rain and damaging winds to western portions of Mexico in the next few days as a hurricane.
Tropical Storm Julia was the last storm to roam in the East Pacific after it crossed over from the Atlantic basin more than a week ago. The last storm to actually form in the basin was Tropical Storm Paine. Paine developed in the open waters of the Pacific during the first week of October and was never a threat to land.
Unlike Paine, forecasters say the new tropical system in the basin could produce significant impacts.
Roslyn is located in an environment where atmospheric factors are conducive to further development.
“It is located in a zone of low, vertical wind shear and warm waters, which should aid in further strengthening to a hurricane by late week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty explained.
Forecasters say it will likely take a path that parallels Mexico’s southern coastline for a few days before it turns toward the northeast. This path is forecast to place the system on a crash course with the states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, and Jalisco later this weekend into early next week.
AccuWeather forecasters are concerned it could reach Category 2 hurricane strength (maximum-sustained winds of 96-110 mph or 154-177 km/h) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale before landfall, depending on how quickly this brewing system is able to organize and strengthen.
“Regardless of the intensity of the system at landfall, flooding rain and mudslides are going to be a threat,” Douty cautioned.