Experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found

March 15th, (AP).- Experts say people over 60 should ‘stay home unless it’s critical’

  • The new coronavirus has killed 41 Americans and infected another 1,700.
  • A panel of experts at the University of California, San Francisco predicted that between 40% and 70% of Americans could become infected within the next 18 months, one internist attending the panel reported.
  • Assuming a 1% mortality rate from the coronavirus, and 50% of the US population becoming infected, that means about 1.5 million Americans could die — that’s if no drug is found effective and made available.
  • Accordingly, the panelists suggested “anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical.”
  • In February, disease modelers from the CDC suggested between 160 million and 214 million Americans could be infected, and as many as 1.7 million could die. 

The US is in the throes of the coronavirus outbreak. Since February 29, 41 Americans have died. The virus has spread to 1,700 across 47 states and Washington, DC; more than half of US states have declared a state of emergency.

According to a panel of infectious disease experts at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), the outbreak on US soil is only going to get worse. The panelists predicted that between 40% and 70% of Americans would become infected with the virus in the next 12 to 18 months, a Bay Area internist in attendance, Jordan Shlain, reported on Thursday.

After surpassing that threshold of infections, you can start to get herd immunity, the panelists added, according to Shlain. 

Shlain used that prediction, and a 1% mortality rate from the coronavirus, to work out an estimate of possible American deaths in the next year-and-a-half — concluding that about 1.5 million Americans may die.

“The panelists did not disagree with our estimate,” Shlain wrote on his LinkedIn. “This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50,000 Americans [dying] per year.”

This assumes no drug is found effective and made available, he added.

Source: AP

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