The Mexican economy starts the second semester with an expectation of growth of 2.29% for the whole year 2018, as well as an inflation outlook of 4.06% for the whole year and a rebound in the exchange rate to 19.62 pesos per dollar also for year-end, according to the survey on the Expectations of Specialists in Private Sector Economics that is prepared monthly by the Bank of Mexico.
According to the consensus of analysts of the private sector, the economic performance shows a minimum advance with respect to the previous month, when a growth of 2.26% was considered. As the survey was conducted prior to the election, the respondents still consider that among the factors that can hinder economic growth in the next six months dominate governance.
“At a general level, the main factors are associated with governance (48%) and external conditions (25%). At a particular level, the main factors are, in order of importance: internal political uncertainty (19% of responses); foreign trade policy (17% of responses); the problems of public insecurity (14% of responses); lack of rule of law (8% of responses); impunity (5% of responses); and the exchange uncertainty (5% of the answers) “.
Regarding inflation, the consensus expectation rose from 3.92 to 4.06%.
In terms of exchange, analysts foresee greater volatility, increasing from 19.02 to 19.62 their outlook for dollar-peso parity at the end of the current year.