Mexico’s GDP will fall 8% and the dollar will reach 23 pesos, analysts predict

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Analysts surveyed by Banxico raised their contraction forecasts for the Mexican economy upwards this year.

Private sector analysts expect Mexico’s economy to contract 7.99% at the end of this year, from a previously estimated drop of 7.1%, a central bank survey released Monday revealed.

The survey released by Banco de México joins the reports last week where expectations of economic contraction for the country deteriorated, including that of Banco de México, OECD, BBVA and JPMorgan.

In an audio broadcast on Monday on her Twitter account, Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, warns that the Mexican economy would take 5 years to return to its pre-Covid-19 crisis level.

The specialists consulted by Banco de México raised to 3.07%, from 2.90%, their expectation for inflation at the end of 2020 and reduced the exchange rate forecast slightly to 23.02, from 23.05 units estimated the previous month.

The median projections were calculated based on the responses of 38 local and foreign analysis groups received between May 16 and 28.

The OECD warned that 2020 will be a difficult year for the Mexican economy and although a recovery is expected in 2021, it will not be enough to achieve the level that Mexico had before the coronavirus pandemic

“Mexico will suffer a more marked recession because it is an open economy: it depends more on trade, on international investments and it is on the countries where trade unemployment and international investments affect the most. Furthermore, due to the negative effect in key areas for the Mexican growth such as tourism, automotive, oil and remittances, “said its secretary general, José Ángel Gurría.

Source: reuters.com, expansion.mx

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