Hurricane Lorena Poses Flash Flood Threat to Southwestern Mexico Coast

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At a Glance

  • Hurricane Lorena is forecast to move near or over Mexico’s southwestern coast through Thursday.
  • Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect along the southwestern Mexico coast.
  • Flash flooding and mudslides are the main threats from Lorena.
  • Moisture from Lorena could fuel an uptick in showers and thunderstorms in the Desert Southwest by this weekend.

Hurricane Lorena is tracking very close to the coast of southwestern Mexico, where it poses a dangerous threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

Lorena will brush Mexico’s southwestern coast through Thursday.

Hurricane Lorena is expected to intensify once it moves over water again late this week.

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Current Storm Status and Projected Path(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the system. It’s important to note that impacts – heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding and winds – with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a hurricane warning from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. This means hurricane-force winds (74-plus mph) are expected somewhere within the warning area – in this case, within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm warning has also been posted from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico. This means tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are expected somewhere within the warning area – in this case, within the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring with in the tropical storm warning area and hurricane conditions are expected today with the hurricane warning area.

A hurricane watch has been issued for the southern Baja California Peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe. A hurricane watch is typically issued 48 hours before the first anticipated occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, which make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

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Watches and Warnings(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)

Lorena is forecast to move near or over Mexico’s southwestern coast within the hurricane warning area through Thursday. It is then predicted to move west-northwestward away from the west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach the southern Baja California Peninsula Friday night and Saturday.

The NHC says 5 to 10 inches of rain is expected from Lorena – with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible – along coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

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Additional Rainfall Forecast(Locally higher amounts are possible.)

This system will also generate dangerous swells that will affect parts of the southwestern Mexico coast over the next few days. Those swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Moisture Surge Into Southwest?

While Lorena won’t have any direct impacts on the United States, it will send a surge of moisture into the Desert Southwest beginning this weekend, continuing into early next week.

In addition, an upper-level low associated with a southward dip in the jet stream will dive into the West early next week, prompting showers and thunderstorms to develop.

Tropical moisture may reach the Southwest as an upper-level low moves into the region.

Moisture from Lorena, as well as from Tropical Storm Mario, will likely reach the Southwest late Saturday into early next week.

The combination of tropical moisture and the upper-level low will likely enhance rainfall in parts of the Southwest.

Precipitation may be widespread and locally heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding.

National Meteorological Service, official source of the Government of Mexico, issues the following notice:

THIS DAY WILL BE KEPT TORRENTIAL RUNNING POINTS IN NAYARIT, JALISCO AND COLIMA, SAME THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODS, INCREASE IN THE RIVES AND RUNNES FLOWS AND FLOODS IN LOW AREAS, IN ADDITION TO THE COSTED ELEVATIONS

This day,  Category 1 hurricane “LORENA” on the Saffir-Simpson scale will cause extraordinary point rains in Jalisco and Colima, as well as torrential point rains in Nayarit, which will be accompanied by wind gusts greater than 80 km / h high swell of 3 to 5 meters on the coasts of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán, as well as possible landslides, increase in the flow of rivers and streams and floods in low areas of these states. La Onda Tropical No. 40 will tour the south of the country and will be absorbed by “LORENA”, causing heavy rains to specific intense in these areas. A new Tropical Wave will  enter, in the afternoon, over the Yucatan Peninsula and will cause rains in the region. TheTropical Storm “Mario” will  be located southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, with a trajectory towards Baja California Sur.

Precipitation forecast for today September 19, 2019:

Torrential rains at extraordinary points (greater than 250 liters per square meter): 
 Jalisco and Colima.
Heavy rains at torrential points (150 to 250 liters per square meter):  Nayarit.
Very heavy rains at intense punctures (75 to 150 liters per square meter):  Michoacán, Guerrero and Oaxaca.
Heavy rains at very strong points (50 to 75 liters per square meter) : Sinaloa, Veracruz and Chiapas.
Intervals of showers with heavy punctual rains (25 to 50 liters per square meter) : Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Tlaxcala, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Morelos and Tabasco.
Showers intervals (5.1 to 25 liters per square meter) : Baja California Sur, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Aguascalientes, Campeche and Quintana Roo.
Isolated showers (0.1 to 5.0 liters per square meter) : Sonora, Coahuila, and Yucatán.

The rain zones will be accompanied by electric shocks, blown wind, hail and possible landslides on the slopes of mountainous areas. Under surveillance: Tropical Storm “KIKO”, far from national coasts; Tropical Storm “MARIO” , south-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, and Hurricane  “LORENA” , on Earth over Jalisco. For more information consult:   https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/pronosticos/avisos/aviso-de-ciclon-tropical-en-el-oceano-pacifico Under surveillance: Hurricane  “HUMBERTO” category 3, se It locates west of Bermuda and Tropical Storm “JERRY” in the Central Atlantic. For more information consult: 
https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/pronosticos/avisos/aviso-de-ciclon-tropical-en-el-oceano-atlantico

Minimum temperature forecast for today September 19, 2019:

Temperatures from 0 to 5 ° C:
  Sierras de Durango, State of Mexico, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Oaxaca, and Veracruz.

Forecast of maximum temperatures for today September 19, 2019:

Temperatures from 40 to 45 ° C:  Areas of Baja California, Sonora, and Coahuila.
Temperatures from 35 to 40 ° C:  Zones of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.

Wind forecast for today September 19, 2019:
Wind with gusts greater than 80 km / h and high waves of 3 to 5 m
 : Coasts of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán.Forecast by regions:

Valle de México:  Cloudy sky during the day with heavy point rains in the State of Mexico and Mexico City, which will be accompanied by electric shocks. Northeast wind between 10 and 25 km / h with gusts of up to 40 km / h. A maximum temperature of 23 to 25 ° C and a minimum temperature of 13 to 15 ° C is expected in Mexico City. For the State of Mexico, maximum temperature of 20 to 22 ° C and minimum of 7 to 9 ° C.

Baja California Peninsula:  Cloudy sky in the afternoon with intervals of showers in Baja California Sur. Very hot environment in the region and northwest wind of 15 to 30 km / h with evening gusts that can exceed 50 km / h.

North pacific: Cloudy sky in the afternoon with very strong punctual rains in Sinaloa and isolated rains in Sonora, which will be accompanied by electric shocks and possible hail fall. Very hot environment and variable wind from 10 to 25 km / h.

Central Pacific:  Cloudy sky throughout the day with extraordinary punctual rains in Jalisco and Colima, torrential punctual rains in Nayarit and intense punctual rains in Michoacán. The rains will be accompanied by electric shocks and could cause landslides, increased river and stream flows and flooding in low areas, in addition to high swells from 3 to 5 meters off the coast of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán. Warm atmosphere during the day and wind from the west and southwest from 15 to 30 km / h with gusts greater than 80 km / h.

South Pacific:  Cloudy sky with heavy punctual rains in Guerrero and Oaxaca, as well as very strong punctures in Chiapas, which will be accompanied by electric shocks, wind gusts and possible hailstorms; In addition to causing possible landslides, increased flows of rivers and streams and floods in low areas of these states. Warm to hot environment during the day. Variable wind from 10 to 25 km / h with gusts greater than 40 km / h.

Gulf of Mexico:  Partly cloudy sky in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon with very strong punctual rains in Veracruz, strong in Tabasco and intervals of showers in Tamaulipas. The rains will be accompanied by electric shocks. Hot weather during the day and east and southeast winds from 10 to 25 km / h.

Yucatan Peninsula: Cloudy sky in the afternoon with showers and electric shocks in Campeche and Quintana Roo, in addition to isolated rains in Yucatan. Hot environment. East and northeast wind from 10 to 25 km / h with evening gusts that can exceed 40 km / h.

Mesa del Norte:  Partly cloudy skies during the day, in the afternoon the cloudiness will increase with heavy rain in Chihuahua, Durango and Zacatecas; intervals of showers in Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí and Aguascalientes, as well as isolated rains in Coahuila. The rains will be accompanied by electric shocks and possible hail. The atmosphere will be hot with east component wind 10 to 25 km / h and evening gusts that can exceed 40 km / h. 

Central Table: Cloudy sky during the day with heavy rain in Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Tlaxcala and Morelos, which will be accompanied by electric shocks. Banks of fog or morning mist in mountain areas. Warm atmosphere during the day and wind from the east and northeast from 10 to 25 km / h with gusts that can exceed 40 km / h.The maximum rains of the last 24 hours (in millimeters) were recorded in:Chamela-Cuixmala (La Huerta), Jal., 134.4; Manzanillo, Col., 124.4; The Union of Isidoro Montes de Oca (Petacalco), Gro., 102.4; 100 Meters (Gustavo A. Madero), CDMX, 68.3; El Escalón (Amatán), Chis., 56.5; Chiconautla II (Tlalnepantla), Edo. de Méx., 47.5; Tlaxcala, Tlax., 35.6; Chinatú (Guadalupe y Calvo), Chih., 27.9; Semay (Navojoa), Son., 27.3 and San Blas, Nay., 21.0.The maximum temperatures (in ° C) were recorded in:Piedras Negras, Coah., 41.6; Hermosillo, Son., 39.5; La Paz, BCS, 39.1; Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Q. Roo, 38.5; Soto La Marina, Tamps., 37.5; Matlapa, SLP, 37.2 and Tacubaya, CDMX, 24.8.The minimum temperatures (in ° C) were recorded in:Constitution of 1857, BC, 4.9; Temoaya, Edo. de Méx., 5.4; Suchil, Dgo., 7.9; San José Teacalco, Tlax., 8.1; El Chico, Hgo., 8.7; El Vergel, Chih., 8.8 and Tacubaya, CDMX, 14.7.

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Source: conagua, weather.com

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