‘Gasoline theft has not come down and AMLO’s strategy is a failure’ … reveals Carlos Loret de Mola with official data

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The journalist Carlos Loret de Mola reveals in his column “Historias de un reportero” that the strategy against fuel theft has not been effective

This Tuesday, the journalist  Carlos Loret de Mola  reveals in his column  ” Historias de un reportero “  that the government strategy of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador against the theft of fuel (huachicoleo) undertaken at the beginning of his term  has been a failure .

All this, taking into account the own data of  Pemex  and the official figures of the current government that, assures, achieved a reduction of 95 percent of the huachicol.

The journalist notes that a  “scientific way to verify if the strategy has been successful is to observe the hard and public data that Pemex does publish regularly, such as its sales: if there is less illegal gasoline and diesel, the volume should have gone up of your legal sales. “

“Surprisingly, with official and public data of Pemex, that does not happen. On the contrary, these data from Pemex indicate that the strategy against the huachicol has failed “

Citing official data of the company,  Loret de Mola  gives an explanation about the oil industralists in terms of sales of barrels and sales of more expensive fuels for the population.

Here the explanation and official sources published by the journalist: 

1. Gasoline sales have fallen.  According to the oil indicators at the end of April 2019, the average sales of gasoline during the first four months of 2019 were 726 thousand barrels per day. It is 12 thousand barrels per day less on average, in the months in which it is assumed that the huachicol was already killed, compared with the last four months of 2018, when the strategy had not yet been implemented.

2. Diesel sales are maintained. The average sales of diesel in the first four months of 2019 were 271 thousand barrels per day, one thousand barrels per day less than in the last four months of 2018:  the same volume, for practical purposes.

3. Added, less fuel is sold . Adding gasoline and diesel have been sold on average 997 thousand barrels per day during the first four months of 2019, compared to one million 10 thousand barrels per day sold  in the last four months of 2018. 13 thousand barrels less.

I stop for a second for those who say  “you must compare the first four months of 2019 with the first four months of 2018”  to avoid seasonal factors. In this comparison, the government is worse off: in the first four months of 2019, about 8 1 thousand fewer barrels of fuel were sold compared to the first four months of 2018, when one million 78 thousand barrels were sold.

4. If the huachicol was finished, sales should have gone up.  If the anti-Chihuahua strategy was successful, as the government proclaims, something should be reflected in Pemex’s national trade volume figures  . As we said at the beginning: if there is less illegal gasoline and diesel, legal sales should have increased. The CEO of Pemex said in the last days of 2018 that the huachicol was equivalent to about 58 thousand barrels per day. If 95 percent was lowered, they should be selling about 55 thousand barrels of additional fuel per day (in addition to one million 10 thousand barrels sold in the last quarter of 2018, before implementing the strategy). That is, total sales should be 1 million 65 thousand barrels per day. But not only did sales not increase, but they went down. And they are 997 thousand barrels a day on average.

5. If we look at the Pemex data, the huachicol has not really come down. Not only did it not disappear, but it seemed that maybe it even increased and already it is around 70 thousand barrels a day.

This drop in sales has not impacted Pemex’s revenues for the simple reason that the government is charging more expensive fuels.

The journalist  Loret de Mola will present in his column a more robust explanation and insists that the strategy against the huachicol of the AMLO government has not worked.

Source: Vanguardia, sinaloaenlinea

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